Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0779b21bbf6300d7bd0516bc1654de256dc91ac579f54a3f53d1d1402d811b16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 33c | 2,006$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.86 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 1,924$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Over | 61c | 1,081$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.01 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…7b27backed Under | 2c | 1,032$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 866.23$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.85 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 30c | 742.67$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.8 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 66c | 742.12$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.32 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…5854backed Over | 59c | 700$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 67c | 658.34$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.25 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 487.36$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.21 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 67c | 439.44$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.39 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 80c | 317.24$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 34c | 311.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 17c | 296.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Over | 67c | 251.25$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.23 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 34c | 223.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Over | 80c | 215.32$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 67c | 182.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked Over | 77c | 170$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 60c | 162.75$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 33c | 152.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 33c | 140.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…f53abacked Over | 78c | 139.62$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 34c | 136.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 35c | 127.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 34c | 102.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…1d61backed Over | 58c | 100.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…f519backed Over | 67c | 98.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Over | 67c | 88.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 87.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 34c | 77.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 66c | 74.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 66c | 73.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 66c | 59.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Under | 41c | 58.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 67c | 58.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcea2…8ea7backed Over | 66c | 51.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 66c | 48.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Over | 62c | 48.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 41c | 47.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 64c | 45.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 33c | 44.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 79c | 43.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…dd56backed Over | 66c | 34.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 61c | 30.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 66c | 29.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…4d47backed Over | 67c | 29.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…1b63backed Over | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 66c | 27.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x02b2…c967backed Over | 66c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Over | 67c | 19.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 67c | 19.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…1100backed Over | 66c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Over | 67c | 16.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.