Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37c4677d278d1825b6eeb36d2a06016aa15e9020465d5f747bb3fbb570b79465
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 3,790$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.57 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 2,845$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.82 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a7…3bb2backed Under | 58c | 1,991$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Under | 14c | 847.61$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.47 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 791.88$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.62 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Over | 59c | 499.44$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.9 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 56c | 442.02$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.25 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 56c | 349.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 44c | 329.45$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.49 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 40c | 298.2$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.92 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 56c | 279.34$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.43 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 44c | 274.55$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.75 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 42c | 185.51$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8b…88cbbacked Over | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc33…6c65backed Under | 6c | 173.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd810…2eb8backed Under | 54c | 147.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…e195backed Over | 42c | 114.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 40c | 109.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 88.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 25c | 85.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 79.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 75c | 56.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 60c | 51.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 58c | 48.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 45c | 38.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Under | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 40c | 28.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 49c | 22.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 80c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.