Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8df0061cb50e20b544a661b852a4bb2d3b0d0edd89a51fbf117743499dc94f68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 6c | 900.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 25c | 499.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 73c | 437.04$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.84 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 39c | 241.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 206.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 187.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 177.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 48c | 122.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 122.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 46c | 113.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 113.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 110.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 87.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 66.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 50c | 58.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 49c | 57.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed Yes | 21c | 50.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 50.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…0f48backed No | 70c | 44.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 43.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 27c | 42.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 52c | 41.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…82bdbacked No | 53c | 41.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 37.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 36.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 35.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 51c | 35.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 60c | 33.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 55c | 32.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 30.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 55c | 29.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c5…6b6cbacked Yes | 49c | 25.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 77c | 24.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 23.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e8…4175backed Yes | 49c | 22.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…d674backed No | 51c | 22.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 20.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…4e75backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.