Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e0158c34f029ba901f30b727b661f955a79e25dc3776d4844ad809f22096c0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 3c | 797.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 43c | 444.45$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.57 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 79c | 442.42$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 36c | 338.47$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 789 | 27.9%220 W · 569 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 324.4$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.64 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 318.14$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 283.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 218.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 68c | 217.22$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 201$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 41c | 196.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.91 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 194.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 182.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 17c | 168.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.13 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 16c | 168.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.16 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 54c | 161.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 152.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.96 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 135$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 127.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 39c | 123.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 123.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 16c | 122.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,876 | 18.6%348 W · 1,528 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 116.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 75c | 99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 340 | 61.8%210 W · 130 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 63.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 66c | 55.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 71c | 52.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 435 | 50.6%220 W · 215 L | +22.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…9f69backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 44c | 47.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 45.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 28c | 43.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 39.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 1,275 | 47.6%607 W · 668 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 36.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…8e93backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +249.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 47c | 33.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 63c | 33.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 51c | 30.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 447 | 66.9%299 W · 148 L | +39.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 62c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 27.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 74c | 26.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 76c | 26.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,184 | 74.2%1,621 W · 563 L | +23.5wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 60c | 24.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 559 | 51.3%287 W · 272 L | +54.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 58c | 23.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 54c | 22.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 64c | 19.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,193 | 57%1,249 W · 944 L | +68.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 63c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 60c | 17.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 78c | 16.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.