Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e154b92f2dd58718d5e0d50e0e367079b19f045fbc4e1b378aebc232e8e4334
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 19c | 1,780$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.83 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 762.07$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.61 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 706.95$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.71 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 8c | 606.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.53 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 379.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.49 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 15c | 340.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.42 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 320.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 14c | 288.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 10c | 270.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6153…9940backed Yes | 8c | 236.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +181.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 19c | 235.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 229.77$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.35 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 5c | 219.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.46 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 52c | 211.9$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 47 | 97.9%46 W · 1 L | +25.0wins | +0.53per pick | 45cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 89+0.35 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 7c | 181.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.16 | 985 | 13.8%136 W · 849 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 9c | 171.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.27 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 80c | 134.44$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 124.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 15c | 123.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 51c | 113.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 14c | 107.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.13 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 72c | 105.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 96 | 83.3%80 W · 16 L | +20.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 28c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 100.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 100.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 11c | 89.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 83.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 70c | 82.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 13c | 78.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…fd19backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 50.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 39c | 36.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 32c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 34.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 649 | 76.9%499 W · 150 L | +100.8wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 35c | 32.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 25.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 23.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 74c | 21.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…4f66backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…ac29backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.