Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb5e5b467dec660f9767b1d96dc49c9a3cf206376b161118719604e235c280af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 56c | 1,630$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.12 | 124 | 41.9%52 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 76c | 1,053$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.31 | 167 | 95.8%160 W · 7 L | +62.3wins | +0.37per pick | 58cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 86+0.32 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 34c | 1,013$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.8 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 557.79$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.66 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 72c | 391.83$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.1 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 57c | 386.63$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.52 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 350.35$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.16 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 350$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 44c | 318$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 29c | 250.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 244.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 62c | 220.19$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.53 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 42c | 166.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 165.59$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 56c | 157.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 151$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 28c | 135.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 131.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 37c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 46c | 126.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 44c | 113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 36c | 111.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 32c | 111$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 34c | 109.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 105$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 44c | 104.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 49c | 103.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 664 | 24.2%161 W · 503 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 3.5%18 W · 498 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 69c | 97.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 455 | 66.2%301 W · 154 L | +20.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 24c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 85.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 44c | 85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed Yes | 35c | 84.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 84.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 83.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 45c | 82.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Yes | 76c | 77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5a9cbacked Yes | 68c | 74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 73c | 73.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 795 | 63.5%505 W · 290 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 47c | 72.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 40c | 72.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 71.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 70.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 63c | 69.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 36c | 69.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 32c | 69.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 171 | 31%53 W · 118 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 34c | 65.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 31c | 64.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…cae8backed Yes | 34c | 59.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 59.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…2707backed Yes | 45c | 58.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 51c | 58.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 49c | 58.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 34c | 56.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 56.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 27c | 56.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed Yes | 55c | 54.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…38b0backed Yes | 36c | 53.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 41c | 53.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 36c | 50.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 46.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 45.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 43.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 32c | 43.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 71c | 42.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 41.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 40.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 550 | 26.9%148 W · 402 L | -66.5wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 39.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 35c | 39.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 35c | 38.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…724cbacked Yes | 45c | 37.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 36.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 36.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 239 | 72.8%174 W · 65 L | +27.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed No | 30c | 33.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 158 | 30.4%48 W · 110 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 30c | 33.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 37c | 31.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 45c | 31.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 44c | 30.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.