Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ed4e3e32959a51da204386707399f27590b1468058da47d777209d46dad0e20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 1,437$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 668 | 43.4%290 W · 378 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 63c | 701.71$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.38 | 124 | 41.9%52 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 629.08$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.49 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 50c | 575.69$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.36 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 518.77$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.14 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 40c | 399.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 300.07$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.98 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 60c | 285.37$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.24 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 48c | 267.47$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.35 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 43c | 255.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 254 | 29.1%74 W · 180 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 44c | 225.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.48 | 416 | 51.9%216 W · 200 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 47c | 206.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 258 | 42.2%109 W · 149 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked No | 76c | 202.85$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 194.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 52c | 178.33$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 664 | 24.2%161 W · 503 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 62c | 171.63$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed No | 57c | 150.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 150$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 126.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed Yes | 55c | 120.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 111$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0acd…ea40backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 254 | 40.9%104 W · 150 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 99.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 43c | 97.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 455 | 66.2%301 W · 154 L | +20.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 40c | 94.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 51c | 94.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 45c | 88.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 54 | 81.5%44 W · 10 L | +9.2wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 79.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…cae8backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed No | 50c | 76.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 54c | 74.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 74.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 51c | 73.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 29c | 73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 68.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 68.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 47c | 65.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 77c | 65.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 49c | 63.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed Yes | 59c | 62.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 55.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…adf1backed No | 54c | 55.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 50.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 54c | 48.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5703…ad74backed No | 49c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa4…eae5backed Yes | 44c | 45.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 45.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 45.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 45.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 36c | 44.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 115 | 27.8%32 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 43c | 43.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 637 | 50.1%319 W · 318 L | +32.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 43.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 41.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 52c | 40.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 550 | 26.9%148 W · 402 L | -66.5wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 39.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 39.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 39.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 38.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 46c | 37.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 56c | 37.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 36.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 59c | 35.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked No | 53c | 34.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 29c | 34.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 34.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 61c | 32.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 32.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 31.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 55c | 30.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf633…c684backed Yes | 40c | 28.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 36c | 27.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68b4…6ec9backed No | 75c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 26.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3a…af71backed Yes | 53c | 26.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 43c | 26.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 24.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 75c | 24.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…b90bbacked No | 49c | 24.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 48c | 23.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…0236backed No | 65c | 23.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 22.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 48c | 21.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.