Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e1b52e71699af91ab6a46f612e0f6daf705f44f520179346ad07b8eb41ee98f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 15c | 2,026$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.47 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 33c | 1,120$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.63 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 12c | 983.52$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 69c | 598.25$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.46 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…09bdbacked Over | 30c | 421.3$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 374.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 31c | 288$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 68c | 258$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…ab3ebacked Under | 70c | 254.4$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 16c | 208.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Under | 73c | 206.21$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Under | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Over | 18c | 172$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf835…28d3backed Under | 70c | 166.9$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Over | 32c | 164.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Under | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595f…9d4dbacked Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 68c | 49.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…257cbacked Under | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5this page
- AC Milan vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AC Milan vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.