Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Nova Esports vs Trace Esports - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e2b84a781e211b1527aa8c53f869991f8b4f50dbf1dac7d4dcdb35c937d46b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trace Esportsof Nova Esports, Trace Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x676f…43c1backed Trace Esports | 64c | 567.47$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa69…6e45backed Nova Esports | 35c | 557.38$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…ef63backed Trace Esports | 64c | 538.12$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…fcd9backed Nova Esports | 35c | 528.55$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Trace Esports | 50c | 523.85$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.36 | 141 | 52.5%74 W · 67 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Nova Esports | 49c | 484.7$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 417 | 34.8%145 W · 272 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed Trace Esports | 26c | 373.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.36 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…9f91backed Nova Esports | 80c | 342.44$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.39 | 600 | 22.7%136 W · 464 L | -26.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…1903backed Trace Esports | 79c | 247.9$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 263 | 54.4%143 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nova Esports | 73c | 174.22$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.77 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddad…bce1backed Trace Esports | 68c | 144.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Nova Esports | 30c | 128$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 88 | 28.4%25 W · 63 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Trace Esports | 25c | 124.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nova Esports | 32c | 109.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Nova Esports | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Trace Esports | 67c | 98.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Nova Esports | 32c | 94.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…0353backed Trace Esports | 18c | 79.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 333 | 46.5%155 W · 178 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Trace Esports | 62c | 69.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b83…f841backed Trace Esports | 49c | 50.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Nova Esports | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Nova Esports | 21c | 48.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 196 | 61.7%121 W · 75 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Trace Esports | 35c | 47.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 264 | 36%95 W · 169 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nova Esports | 68c | 40.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Nova Esports | 78c | 39.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 305 | 44.3%135 W · 170 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Trace Esports | 43c | 38.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…58c4backed Trace Esports | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Nova Esports | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 267 | 30.7%82 W · 185 L | -13.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…6af8backed Nova Esports | 43c | 33.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Nova Esports | 67c | 31.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…bcf1backed Trace Esports | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af0…7696backed Nova Esports | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Nova Esports | 76c | 22.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…25bdbacked Trace Esports | 61c | 20.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Nova Esports vs Trace Esports - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: TE (-1.5) vs Nova Esports (+1.5)Trace Esports won
- Valorant: Nova Esports vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group OmegaTrace Esports won
- Valorant: Nova Esports vs Trace Esports - Map 2 WinnerTrace Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.