Mls · resolved market
Chicago Fire FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e2c995dddfdb9124b9676f9f0f7a25554c3989b830a3caf4e45e4549f71dfe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,915 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 22c | 1,136$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.92 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 24c | 843.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…474dbacked Over | 40c | 752.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 35c | 714.3$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 65c | 615.55$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.11 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 596.88$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.8 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 76c | 512.19$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.55 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…85e4backed Under | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 78c | 382.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f49…085bbacked Over | 74c | 304.05$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ef…335dbacked Under | 26c | 304.05$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 32c | 284.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 57c | 244.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 51c | 200.82$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 22c | 194.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 180.42$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 78c | 179.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 32c | 154.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…609fbacked Under | 9c | 149$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 124.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 21c | 124.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 19c | 79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 43c | 76.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Under | 59c | 60.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…dfaabacked Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 65c | 41.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 44c | 40.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Under | 58c | 22.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 75c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Fire FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. D.C. United SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.