Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e373a9a0b08946af14853264e33314e568c90f2ab60268715dfabcd80da6288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 65c | 1,287$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.69 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 1,138$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 3c | 1,059$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 782.07$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…d088backed Yes | 3c | 620.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.62 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Yes | 65c | 592.75$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 28c | 452.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.18 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78df…1167backed Yes | 9c | 444$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.04 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 5c | 397.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.22 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 51c | 385.75$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.29 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 14c | 343.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.02 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 304.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 295.19$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 20c | 291.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 256.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…c4d3backed Yes | 5c | 250.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.84 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +90%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 227.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.45 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 70c | 225.4$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 12c | 225.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.85 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 13c | 203.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.27 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…7541backed Yes | 6c | 194.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +501.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 189.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…e793backed Yes | 10c | 185.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.34 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 22c | 182.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 9c | 181.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.69 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263b…853dbacked No | 12c | 179.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 76c | 158.08$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 11c | 145.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes | 9c | 145.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec2…8988backed Yes | 50c | 133.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…62adbacked Yes | 14c | 121.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 14c | 120.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 17c | 112.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 46c | 109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 18c | 106.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a80…7deabacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 53c | 98.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 96.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 39c | 95.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…a222backed Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 62c | 76.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 16c | 76.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 16c | 64.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 62.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 62c | 62.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 47.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 37c | 46.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 58c | 43.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed Yes | 44c | 43.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked Yes | 36c | 41.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…88f6backed No | 76c | 40.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…5c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 35.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccf…8aa6backed Yes | 58c | 32.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 58c | 28.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 48c | 28.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed Yes | 51c | 24.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…4dabbacked No | 60c | 21.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…731dbacked No | 54c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 67c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…cee3backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 52c | 19.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 73c | 15.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.