Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4694567a7f9057811292cb581623019db4d75603d40326679593fbef27c68c6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 1c | 1,839$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd393…0744backed Yes | 1c | 1,835$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,413$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.87 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 1,061$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 31c | 1,027$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.21 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 999.33$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 18c | 801.54$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.29 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 11c | 771.51$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 758.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…62adbacked Yes | 4c | 733.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 71c | 722.4$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.6 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 718.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 50c | 651.18$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.65 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 8c | 573.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa524…9c79backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…40b7backed No | 70c | 441.89$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.56 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 9c | 427.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 7c | 356$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 69c | 317.79$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.96 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…c236backed Yes | 48c | 308.7$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.18 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 47c | 283.1$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.37 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 71c | 271.12$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.68 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 73c | 235.86$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.45 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 51c | 208.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.05 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 19c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 60c | 200$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 20c | 196.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 19c | 195.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 49c | 168.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 35c | 165.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.56 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 69c | 164.56$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 49c | 154.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 141.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaeb…a226backed Yes | 48c | 140.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 78c | 136.79$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…c8a9backed No | 41c | 128.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d4…e3e5backed No | 35c | 121.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 10c | 120.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 12c | 119.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x644c…9b6abacked No | 60c | 100.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 65c | 96.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…4e56backed No | 59c | 95.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…f70abacked Yes | 75c | 91.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 69c | 84.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 23c | 74.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 50c | 73.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 36c | 70.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…3056backed No | 31c | 66.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 59c | 65.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf70…4b1cbacked Yes | 78c | 58.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c48…6af3backed Yes | 25c | 57.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed No | 33c | 56.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 47c | 52.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 62c | 51.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea14…bc02backed No | 66c | 51.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a80…7deabacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…dee8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…ac39backed Yes | 73c | 48.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed No | 54c | 44.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked Yes | 77c | 43.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed No | 33c | 43.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…c9c4backed Yes | 56c | 37.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…64a9backed No | 71c | 27.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…a0b8backed No | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 45c | 22.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 54c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.