Tennis · resolved market
HSBC Championships: Evans vs. Nakashima
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e51695fcb62eacdfe5ca2e143af80f057ff5c8ef40302c012e2d96b3b48ec48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Evans , Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Nakashima | 69c | 2,840$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.35 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Evans | 33c | 2,493$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.93 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Nakashima | 79c | 1,367$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.89 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Nakashima | 67c | 1,144$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.34 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…9f03backed Evans | 14c | 969.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Nakashima | 67c | 737.4$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.68 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Evans | 20c | 684.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.87 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Evans | 27c | 661$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.96 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Evans | 32c | 615.93$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.15 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Nakashima | 66c | 582.19$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.86 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Evans | 33c | 547.18$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…59f3backed Nakashima | 67c | 535.15$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.35 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Evans | 39c | 513.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Nakashima | 70c | 457.14$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.14 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Nakashima | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Nakashima | 63c | 372.78$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.93 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…3303backed Nakashima | 70c | 356.79$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Evans | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Evans | 34c | 205.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Nakashima | 69c | 187.97$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Nakashima | 62c | 179.68$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Evans | 19c | 155.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nakashima | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nakashima | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee7d…4eebbacked Evans | 34c | 109.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…8722backed Nakashima | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Nakashima | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…e6a5backed Evans | 34c | 85.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…bb91backed Nakashima | 78c | 52.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2313…3ee6backed Evans | 37c | 43.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Evans | 30c | 41.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Evans | 34c | 34.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Nakashima | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Nakashima | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Nakashima | 74c | 26.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.