Fifa International · resolved market
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Second half draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e538ea6e8a9b1ff8cd4cd3198dc10e946df8e3ac134202be7f5ccdb465b04dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc3…f923backed Yes | 19c | 1,240$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.4 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Yes | 19c | 376.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.24 | 192 | 50%96 W · 96 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 153.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 147.91$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 21c | 135$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Yes | 23c | 126.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 455 | 48.6%221 W · 234 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Yes | 19c | 101.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 97.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 94.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 78c | 77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Yes | 22c | 67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 415 | 51.8%215 W · 200 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Yes | 20c | 63.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 264 | 49.2%130 W · 134 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 770 | 51.3%395 W · 375 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 335 | 38.8%130 W · 205 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 339 | 37.5%127 W · 212 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Second half draw?this page
- Netherlands to win the second half?No won
- Tunisia to win the second half?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.