Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e829cae8e6a0678102d5a41c960305eec10249974acea0ee87a8bf63481d55b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 3c | 1,164$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 52c | 782.44$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.95 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked Yes | 39c | 565.1$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.1 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 59c | 447.78$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.32 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…db97backed Yes | 58c | 380.8$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 27c | 371.35$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.29 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 284.55$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.53 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 231.3$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 45c | 224.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.72 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed No | 79c | 209.47$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.33 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…4625backed Yes | 58c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…871dbacked Yes | 43c | 200$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 12c | 190.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 63c | 185.92$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 59c | 177$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 42c | 171.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 112.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 74.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 47c | 69.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 25c | 60.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…9820backed Yes | 36c | 37.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 69c | 32.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…2c08backed Yes | 36c | 30.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…d66abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 26.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or higher on January 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.