Mls · resolved market
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eb54050ab666696957e263ea454f9d05099a14abf4f4b6a42ed79e505a9ed85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 77c | 400.96$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 10c | 253.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 48c | 244.26$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.7 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 46c | 238$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 10c | 218.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 50c | 166$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 8c | 155.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 50c | 138.86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 136.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed No | 72c | 120.39$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed No | 39c | 112.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 102.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 67c | 101.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 58c | 93.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 28c | 88.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 34c | 82.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 79.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 26c | 75.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 71c | 70.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed No | 51c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 43c | 62.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 28c | 57.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 54.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 50c | 53.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 74c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 79c | 49.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 67c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed No | 39c | 35.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 49c | 26.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb6…8cdebacked Yes | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…4a47backed No | 73c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…a8a1backed No | 74c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?No won
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-05-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.