Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ec5fb1d07cde56f21fa5ab9abed98cc0a5b8655c8564105e859f78ef97f76de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 62c | 3,226$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.4 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 63c | 3,048$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.43 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 37c | 1,067$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 999.07$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.01 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed Under | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 38c | 700$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 40c | 625$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 42c | 294.04$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 279$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.16 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 61c | 265.21$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 37c | 260$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 37c | 260$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 58c | 233.05$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.88 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 38c | 231.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Over | 61c | 170.65$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c3…6603backed Under | 12c | 155.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 137.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 37c | 106.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 38c | 79.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 60c | 66.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 57c | 61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Under | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 28c | 45.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 39c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…d948backed Under | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 61c | 42.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 33c | 31.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 67c | 26.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…af73backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Over | 62c | 22.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Over | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)CF Montréal won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.