Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c7f33a2b998e5eb8d655c91f8d8d16de93e7054b0c8d7e358aab25d8cd2be65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 59c | 4,592$2,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,887.84 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 3,685$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.54 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 50c | 3,478$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.97 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 41c | 1,951$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.35 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 41c | 1,349$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.1 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 41c | 1,105$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.97 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 41c | 1,041$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.81 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 39c | 1,017$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.12 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 943.02$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.29 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 42c | 859.52$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.74 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 60c | 439.76$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.13 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…095ebacked Over | 40c | 420.42$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 414$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.41 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 410.2$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.92 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 37c | 371.05$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.76 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Over | 40c | 368.64$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.14 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 42c | 350$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 60c | 312.3$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.34 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 60c | 244.24$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 41c | 218.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.41 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 41c | 211.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 59c | 131.02$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 59c | 123.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa68e…94b3backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…7fe2backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 39c | 72.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 38c | 66.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 33c | 47.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 61c | 46.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 65c | 43.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 38c | 40.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 60c | 39.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Under | 59c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 47c | 32.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 79c | 27.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 56c | 27.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 61c | 24.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 68c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 61c | 20.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)CF Montréal won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.