Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a8323c966e39bfd00d8dad515a0fe5e0cc7b69a46959d384559d83d46193256
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 42c | 11,910$5,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,002.17 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 60c | 3,459$2,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.05 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 58c | 2,586$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.21 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 58c | 2,157$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.91 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.99 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 22c | 1,026$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.62 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.01 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 58c | 627.01$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.84 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 354.59$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.24 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 58c | 345$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.39 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 49c | 305.43$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.59 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 78c | 299$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 253.43$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.24 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 28c | 237$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 60c | 226.23$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.23 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 58c | 181.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked Under | 58c | 174.22$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 61cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 51c | 153.66$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 21c | 152.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 78c | 134.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 79c | 133.14$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 78c | 126$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Over | 21c | 120.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 32c | 100.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 78c | 86.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 50c | 79.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 22c | 48.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)CF Montréal won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.