Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ecff97778cbf180ebf43c502540d029b25d76424b2bd218726768eab3e14e96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 18c | 585.3$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 14c | 488.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 25c | 436.47$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.42 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 31c | 417.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 374.5$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 71c | 373.67$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.52 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 72c | 300$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 293.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 283.22$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 55c | 262.19$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.83 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed Yes | 57c | 262.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 43c | 245.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 61c | 236.5$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 54c | 233.63$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.81 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 28c | 212.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.03 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 70c | 208.97$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 37c | 207.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 206.81$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 54c | 205.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 62c | 198.81$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 191.23$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.14 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 190.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 50c | 174.69$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 173.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 67c | 167$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.17 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 65c | 156$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 79c | 155.96$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 27c | 151.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 146.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 144.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 17c | 140.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 72c | 134.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 30c | 131.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 39c | 125.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 27c | 124.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 110.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 56c | 107.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 52c | 105.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 31c | 105.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 105$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 79c | 104.07$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 42c | 103$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 69c | 102.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 46c | 100.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 54c | 99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed Yes | 35c | 96.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 49c | 94.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 46c | 91.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed Yes | 58c | 90.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 86.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 57c | 85.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 83.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 27c | 81.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…bc87backed No | 74c | 79.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 67c | 77.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 30c | 76.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 77c | 75.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 74.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4e…9321backed Yes | 55c | 73.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3f95backed No | 70c | 70.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 72c | 69.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 22c | 68.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 64.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 40c | 62.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 24c | 61.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 78c | 59.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 57.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 67c | 56.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 47c | 53.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 66c | 52.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 49c | 51.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 34c | 50.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 60c | 49.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 48.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 77c | 46.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 65c | 45.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 26c | 45.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 44.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 72c | 44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 32c | 43.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 71c | 42.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 30c | 41.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 41.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…b51cbacked No | 80c | 37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 39c | 36.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 75c | 33.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 70c | 33.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C or higher on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.