MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f2306007cb43c4002395462b8d38a7c7fdb7a9f08f348d540fef839baebd0f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astrosof Athletics, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Astros | 67c | 9,091$6,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000.04 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Athletics | 33c | 8,992$2,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,965.42 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…9996backed Athletics | 0c | 7,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 72c | 2,099$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x352d…ef4bbacked Astros | 65c | 1,662$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…8f37backed Athletics | 35c | 1,660$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Athletics | 33c | 1,647$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.53 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Athletics | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.98 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Astros | 66c | 1,422$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.47 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Astros | 66c | 1,000$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.73 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Athletics | 5c | 816.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Athletics | 23c | 774$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.02 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Athletics | 31c | 742.54$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.21 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Astros | 68c | 611.99$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.84 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Astros | 67c | 541.15$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.58 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Athletics | 32c | 499.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Athletics | 7c | 403.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Athletics | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Astros | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Athletics | 35c | 294.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Astros | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Athletics | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Astros | 67c | 262.09$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7b…892dbacked Astros | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Athletics | 31c | 106.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…10c5backed Astros | 69c | 104.35$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Astros | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…aae3backed Athletics | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 444 | 43%191 W · 253 L | +21.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Athletics | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…f7b5backed Athletics | 34c | 89.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Athletics | 32c | 63.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Athletics | 32c | 59.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Astros | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Astros | 67c | 50.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ee…4c0bbacked Astros | 68c | 45.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…5ac2backed Astros | 68c | 43.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Athletics | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Athletics | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Astros | 67c | 37.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Astros | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0243…3bc2backed Astros | 68c | 30.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…b6f8backed Astros | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdd…4fccbacked Astros | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x818e…b787backed Astros | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Astros | 67c | 24.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Astros | 66c | 23.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…2367backed Astros | 68c | 22.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Astros | 73c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Astros | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.