Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f4b86370ac3979d746bde3a857e3f2a459915b9724a84b5d808d40e65d33fd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 327.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 34c | 220$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 213.81$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 188.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 76c | 186.11$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 26c | 171.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 34c | 163.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 148.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 22c | 132$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 9c | 117.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 111.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 107$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb93…45bfbacked Yes | 38c | 105.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 87.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 16c | 87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 41c | 69.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 42c | 66.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 64.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 63c | 62.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 61.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 61.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa0…afdfbacked No | 66c | 60.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 34c | 60.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 59.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 58.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 50.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 49.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 46.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 45.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 44.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…ef73backed Yes | 42c | 40.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed No | 67c | 39.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 38.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 37.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 41c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 32.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 27.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 42c | 24.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 61c | 22.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 60c | 21.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 71c | 18.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 66c | 15.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.