Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa97783dc026f43fa43e38b30e690c0545a58e107db0d653c3c20af4a2e33c202
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 47c | 664.82$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.46 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 44c | 500$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.12 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 35c | 435.83$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.29 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 52c | 334.85$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.75 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 316.07$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 308.18$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 266.36$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 264.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.84 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 258.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 186.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 29c | 163.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.59 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 153.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 153.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 28c | 148.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.24 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 115.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 112.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 107$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 31c | 106.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 104.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 103.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb93…45bfbacked Yes | 29c | 99.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 81.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 52c | 81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 17c | 80.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 69c | 76.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 55c | 75.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 30c | 71.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 65.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 79c | 62.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 31c | 62.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 26c | 62.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 59.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 30c | 59.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 56.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 71c | 54.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 61c | 54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 52.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 32c | 49.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 49.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 35c | 47.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 28c | 46.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 34c | 43.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 34c | 41.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…ef73backed Yes | 30c | 40.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 40.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 38.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 32c | 38.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 34.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 34.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 68c | 34.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 51c | 32.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 32.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 70c | 32.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 75c | 30.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…b72ebacked Yes | 79c | 28.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 76c | 26.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 69c | 24.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 59c | 24.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 21.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 68c | 19.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 18.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 15.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…a523backed No | 71c | 15.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.