TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,265
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,876

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,265 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes47c664.82$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.466955.1%38 W · 31 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes44c500$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.1246733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes35c435.83$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.294839.6%19 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes52c334.85$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.7527744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c316.07$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.174,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c308.18$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.8210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes27c266.36$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.442,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes33c264.9$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.841,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c258.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No34c186.74$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.632,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes29c163.69$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.5935325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c153.9$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.699,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c153.78$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes28c148.44$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.2431836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No59c115.91$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.37,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No75c112.17$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1392678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No53c107$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.215,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes31c106.45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4547935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No65c105$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2563757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c104.16$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.45,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c103.74$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.937,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.923666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb93…45bfbacked Yes29c99.97$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.981435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No28c89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.035,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c81.78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No52c81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.471,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No17c80.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.013,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No69c76.94$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3446549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes55c75.18$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4663538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes30c71.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No57c65.42$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.452,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes79c62.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4920662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes31c62.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.243,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes26c62.26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8235137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No50c59.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No30c59.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8938860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No64c56.51$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.028,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5610746.7%50 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb17…ee85backed Yes71c54.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.967739%30 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No61c54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9433350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No61c52.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0358358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed No62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.759744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.523941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3048743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab5e…47f6backed No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.55935.6%21 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f10…563bbacked Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.278835.2%31 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes32c49.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.626237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No70c49.11$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.213,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes35c47.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5954547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes28c46.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2926533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed Yes34c43.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5522853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No34c41.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.034,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe4e5…ef73backed Yes30c40.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.511127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes41c40.09$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.463,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c38.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.884,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes32c38.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.394,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe775…01d2backed Yes46c38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.529646.9%45 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x855e…de25backed Yes44c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.654643.5%20 W · 26 L-7.7wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes40c34.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.892,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No69c34.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.072,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No68c34.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2843848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No31c34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.692,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No51c32.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.965353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c32.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.849,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No70c32.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6614161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf713…86fdbacked Yes75c30.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.634645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.726142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.122945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef3a…b72ebacked Yes79c28.29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.06862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick73cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No43c28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.982,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb518…3403backed No73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No72c27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4444465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes76c26.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.442,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked No69c24.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.029053.3%48 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No59c24.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2391861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No69c21.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6165965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No72c20.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5825766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.72,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.352,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bc…c1b8backed No68c19.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.236061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No74c18.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.571464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No73c15.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.581,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f1…a523backed No71c15.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.642277.3%17 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.