Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C on January 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f4d867299f328e33d42e4591a9f0eceddd713bd49989c99f7013759e1ed8c0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 8c | 1,509$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.04 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed Yes | 47c | 824.51$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.3 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 9c | 700$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 6c | 696.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 7c | 555.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 8c | 473.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 13c | 279.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 79c | 277.5$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x419e…8a4fbacked Yes | 32c | 252.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 14c | 252$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 250.43$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.29 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 5c | 249.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 26c | 219.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…8447backed Yes | 53c | 149.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 77c | 142.44$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 141.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba6a…787dbacked Yes | 10c | 131.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…a69abacked Yes | 31c | 131.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 27c | 113.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 108.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1005…a843backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…d53ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e1…a2bdbacked Yes | 38c | 89.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…17adbacked Yes | 53c | 85.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 18c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 49c | 68.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 70c | 67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 66.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 26c | 63.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe107…eef0backed Yes | 21c | 61.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 21c | 60.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…73d1backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…1a80backed No | 78c | 46.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…488bbacked Yes | 33c | 46.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 53c | 42.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…0a73backed Yes | 30c | 42.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c66…fcc1backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…70f4backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…675fbacked No | 54c | 39.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…761ebacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…a5bcbacked No | 69c | 38.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…465fbacked Yes | 31c | 36.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb603…a587backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…728bbacked No | 79c | 34.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked No | 75c | 32.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 53c | 29.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…379fbacked No | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…f242backed Yes | 50c | 29.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x568e…0919backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…22edbacked No | 72c | 21.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C on January 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 1°C on January 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or higher on January 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.