TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
JD Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, JD Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,764

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd9d…b730backed JD Gaming48c9,185$4,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,796.431457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed JD Gaming45c4,500$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,474.973850%19 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56b4…c4adbacked Bilibili Gaming54c4,056$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,190.2412454%67 W · 57 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Bilibili Gaming51c4,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05032345.8%148 W · 175 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Bilibili Gaming54c3,704$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9551852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked Bilibili Gaming51c2,095$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.8361045.2%276 W · 334 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed JD Gaming46c2,000$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.41,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe9…c6dcbacked Bilibili Gaming55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed JD Gaming64c1,440$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.825547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked JD Gaming46c1,438$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.2870456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Bilibili Gaming55c1,233$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.349053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed JD Gaming47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53048440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad1…bab0backed JD Gaming50c948$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked JD Gaming46c944.15$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.8444550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf9…edd3backed Bilibili Gaming50c942$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1606…2424backed JD Gaming50c926$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9760…865cbacked Bilibili Gaming50c920$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Bilibili Gaming55c909.09$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50048353.4%258 W · 225 L-19.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc9…4965backed JD Gaming50c856$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x737d…190cbacked JD Gaming50c852$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f3…c89bbacked Bilibili Gaming50c844$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42e8…4d2cbacked Bilibili Gaming50c752$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Bilibili Gaming54c698.81$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.3682161%501 W · 320 L+1.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Bilibili Gaming54c688.81$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37013136.6%48 W · 83 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked JD Gaming46c669.56$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.4316347.2%77 W · 86 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bilibili Gaming52c631.05$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.081,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed JD Gaming45c616.25$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.941,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Bilibili Gaming49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2941,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Bilibili Gaming54c556.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30039541.3%163 W · 232 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed JD Gaming46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27030139.5%119 W · 182 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed JD Gaming47c499.99$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.9996054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8688…a520backed Bilibili Gaming53c459.99$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.816251.9%84 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Bilibili Gaming44c450.94$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.675450%27 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0640…1cd6backed JD Gaming46c383.09$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.8714935.6%53 W · 96 L-12.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc1a…6049backed Bilibili Gaming53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008240.2%33 W · 49 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed JD Gaming50c319.02$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.0227050.7%137 W · 133 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c02…7fdcbacked JD Gaming73c309.64$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.52075%15 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked Bilibili Gaming54c298.02$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7415545.8%71 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed JD Gaming72c277.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.835545.5%25 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked JD Gaming59c267.18$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.950848.4%246 W · 262 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed JD Gaming46c265.17$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.6215232.2%49 W · 103 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x691f…5e69backed JD Gaming73c248.11$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.447245.8%33 W · 39 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Bilibili Gaming55c245.45$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13526360.1%158 W · 105 L+1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9107…b3e8backed JD Gaming33c217.96$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.311050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Bilibili Gaming66c211.6$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3192354.3%501 W · 422 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Bilibili Gaming73c208.54$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.542317.4%4 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-66.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked JD Gaming44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.120546.3%95 W · 110 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Bilibili Gaming55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11026354%142 W · 121 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Bilibili Gaming55c194.55$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10716346.6%76 W · 87 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf16…65a6backed Bilibili Gaming55c182.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019055.3%105 W · 85 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa085…7fccbacked Bilibili Gaming55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017159.6%102 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Bilibili Gaming37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.521457.5%123 W · 91 L+13.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Bilibili Gaming44c142.78$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.559647.7%284 W · 312 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Bilibili Gaming49c139.02$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.121,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25a4…2694backed Bilibili Gaming55c136.96$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.335263.5%33 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Bilibili Gaming50c133.93$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9627447.8%131 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ec…09afbacked Bilibili Gaming51c129.75$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.174032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Bilibili Gaming54c122.22$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6646552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Bilibili Gaming52c114.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6029335.2%103 W · 190 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c04…ba84backed Bilibili Gaming54c111.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03c4…6f4ebacked Bilibili Gaming46c109.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024453.3%130 W · 114 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff16…804ebacked JD Gaming47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3813849.3%68 W · 70 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec7…a5ebbacked Bilibili Gaming50c102$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a12…2af6backed JD Gaming50c100.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Bilibili Gaming55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x13fb…66b2backed Bilibili Gaming55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505056%28 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2091…b4f8backed Bilibili Gaming55c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51,17547.4%557 W · 618 L+42.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed Bilibili Gaming51c90$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.979151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd983…d92dbacked JD Gaming57c87.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.22347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c88…5463backed Bilibili Gaming55c69.09$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8381…a304backed JD Gaming58c65.38$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.466662.1%41 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43b3…74cfbacked Bilibili Gaming55c63.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.931136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Bilibili Gaming28c63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9589810.7%96 W · 802 L+2.6wins0.00per pick10cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed JD Gaming46c60.87$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.878042.5%34 W · 46 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdefd…afbcbacked JD Gaming50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309538.9%37 W · 58 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Bilibili Gaming53c56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.683762.2%23 W · 14 L+6.8wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+33.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb83f…b17ebacked JD Gaming47c56$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.682850%14 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0a1…6daebacked Bilibili Gaming54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015543.9%68 W · 87 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e3…e590backed Bilibili Gaming55c54.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.13447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x436c…5fbdbacked JD Gaming57c52.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.631952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f3…8382backed JD Gaming48c52.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.087055.7%39 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5db…b42dbacked JD Gaming72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1411859.3%70 W · 48 L-11.2wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-14.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Bilibili Gaming39c46.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.187028.6%20 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x383d…87eabacked JD Gaming46c45.65$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6511042.7%47 W · 63 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Bilibili Gaming48c45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4544743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb22b…0c47backed JD Gaming51c43.71$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.281457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+34.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed JD Gaming46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4812834.4%44 W · 84 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12fe…96a8backed JD Gaming48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.678956.2%50 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0063…4982backed JD Gaming75c40.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.142181%17 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+32.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0235…4224backed Bilibili Gaming50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1915…6356backed Bilibili Gaming56c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.41833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26b1…c3ddbacked Bilibili Gaming29c38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0214544.8%65 W · 80 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0758…48d8backed Bilibili Gaming54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca2…d5b9backed JD Gaming46c32.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5b…4ef4backed Bilibili Gaming56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.85648.2%27 W · 29 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid+29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc97e…ea6fbacked JD Gaming46c26.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.47034.3%24 W · 46 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Bilibili Gaming61c26.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168554.1%46 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked JD Gaming52c26.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.524959.8%149 W · 100 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b84…48e3backed JD Gaming66c23.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.972828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Bilibili Gaming56c23.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9650749.7%252 W · 255 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.