MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f6b764affa6fdf00c9dcb3275304665bac60a65d6bba8f900c1c149d7515f02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 6,869$3,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,437.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 4,661$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,516.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 59c | 1,701$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.15 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed Over | 61c | 573.77$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.77 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 73c | 390.89$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 40c | 380$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 38c | 314.89$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 65c | 307.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 27c | 292.27$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 40c | 223.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…1a78backed Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 52c | 183.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 48c | 158$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 19c | 118.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 71c | 112.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 53c | 99.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 30c | 87.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…edd3backed Under | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 60c | 79.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 51c | 67.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 51c | 67.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 52c | 62.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…270abacked Over | 52c | 62.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 52c | 62.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 52c | 62.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 52c | 62.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 42c | 50.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 61c | 31.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 66c | 31.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Under | 40c | 26.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.