MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8079bef77a395586193e9f676a1e973cf8f676f8eefc94928e81a719da4f2649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Under | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.67 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 727.24$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 63c | 476.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.17 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 40c | 379.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 288.32$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Under | 66c | 217.74$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Over | 53c | 171.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 23c | 110.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 37c | 100.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 61c | 91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 28c | 77.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…270abacked Over | 36c | 65.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 37c | 62.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 37c | 62.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 37c | 62.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 37c | 62.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 37c | 50.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…07d7backed Under | 79c | 37.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 53c | 29.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 52c | 27.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.