MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4ed7377597cc2f8ca5b913a1febc5e5625d9d21dbacba3d56ccd07a348b98e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 7,089$3,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,864.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 55c | 5,300$2,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,915 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…c047backed Over | 48c | 4,375$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.21 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 54c | 3,209$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.06 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 2,611$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 48c | 1,633$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.75 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 56c | 1,552$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.2 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 1,236$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.86 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 42c | 1,159$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.04 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 4c | 1,062$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 51c | 803$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.53 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 53c | 773.58$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 54c | 559$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…c403backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 63c | 466.19$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.49 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 37c | 419.19$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 368.83$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e43…c324backed Over | 49c | 277.55$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 47c | 257.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.89 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Under | 52c | 250.13$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52c0…9735backed Over | 62c | 237.59$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 49c | 210$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 48c | 200.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.09 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Under | 56c | 190$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 184.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 76c | 151.93$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed Over | 49c | 122.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 121$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Under | 54c | 119.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 109.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 58c | 97.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 48c | 93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…03bdbacked Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 44c | 83.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 64c | 63.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 55c | 58.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 52c | 49.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 50c | 49.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 26c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Under | 64c | 42.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 40.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 59c | 28.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 60c | 26.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Under | 48c | 23.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 21.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 78c | 16.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.