TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$594,876
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$646,698

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $594,876 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1136…0c2ebacked Athletics56c100,000$56,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,999.9613340.6%54 W · 79 L-14.4wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants47c70,478$33,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,235.752,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics19c60,454$11,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,595.9610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics6c47,076$2,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,668.824,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef1b…8697backed Athletics41c32,998$13,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,494.1814042.9%60 W · 80 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Athletics11c30,551$3,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,235.5311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed San Francisco Giants66c26,767$17,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,164.791,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed San Francisco Giants44c11,982$5,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,720.313,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed San Francisco Giants44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,60012457.3%71 W · 53 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed San Francisco Giants51c9,922$5,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,850.421,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed San Francisco Giants51c9,795$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,795.431,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed San Francisco Giants59c9,000$5,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6906653%35 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed San Francisco Giants45c7,631$3,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,196.874,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Athletics20c6,438$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.298,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72f8…8ea0backed San Francisco Giants59c6,197$3,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,529.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Athletics55c6,030$3,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,316.6423948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Athletics55c6,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.974835.4%17 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants44c5,374$2,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,009.595,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Athletics38c4,673$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.072,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked San Francisco Giants59c4,415$2,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.9844744.1%197 W · 250 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics12c4,014$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.668,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Athletics1c3,768$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.38762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants44c3,640$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.41,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeff8…68ebbacked Athletics8c3,547$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.922642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Athletics28c3,257$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.811,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Athletics55c3,104$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.251,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics10c3,055$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.954,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked San Francisco Giants45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6501,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed San Francisco Giants44c3,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68077951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd6…d9f7backed Athletics1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Athletics16c2,721$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.649,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants68c2,608$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.78,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed San Francisco Giants44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40075049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Athletics54c2,385$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.9560451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d57…18ddbacked Athletics50c2,113$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.411947.1%56 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Athletics48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00070546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Athletics4c2,044$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.281,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Athletics1c1,933$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.635852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Athletics56c1,810$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.62245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Athletics7c1,664$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.951,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed San Francisco Giants58c1,662$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.8326245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Athletics8c1,555$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.071,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Francisco Giants59c1,527$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.171,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Athletics56c1,489$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.8389153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Athletics48c1,450$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6962,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Athletics10c1,395$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5688053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Athletics12c1,392$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2171850.1%360 W · 358 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Athletics2c1,376$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.353929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Athletics9c1,359$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225236.5%19 W · 33 L-6.9wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-26.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics10c1,240$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.036,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed San Francisco Giants67c1,235$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.213,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Athletics12c1,205$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.045,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants61c1,151$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.3412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Athletics57c1,140$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65022849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0182…301cbacked San Francisco Giants79c1,081$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.218862.5%55 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Athletics55c1,060$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.581,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Athletics3c1,050$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4340629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Athletics7c1,035$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6378649.1%386 W · 400 L+3.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Athletics55c1,005$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.7573748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked San Francisco Giants44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5602,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Athletics56c991$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.961,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Athletics51c986.45$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.0982741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd25…7d10backed San Francisco Giants45c855.67$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.621631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Athletics20c839.81$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4479147.9%379 W · 412 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Athletics4c800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3226618.4%49 W · 217 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Athletics4c782$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.241,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics10c764.49$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.536,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed San Francisco Giants78c751.23$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.273458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed San Francisco Giants44c750$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4202,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed San Francisco Giants66c680$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.847589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked San Francisco Giants79c675.23$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.3767742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ec7…2b6bbacked Athletics50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006456.3%36 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f0…fe05backed San Francisco Giants60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24017545.7%80 W · 95 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletics22c592.43$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.421,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Athletics55c586.23$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.4332251.6%166 W · 156 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a99…8210backed San Francisco Giants44c568.18$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.18757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Athletics56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28046749.5%231 W · 236 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Athletics55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27555052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed San Francisco Giants61c491.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.82,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed San Francisco Giants63c476.85$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.0926857.8%155 W · 113 L+26.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xafca…92b4backed Athletics42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018154.7%99 W · 82 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Athletics10c467.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.041,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics9c455.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.83,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Athletics56c455$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.814047.1%66 W · 74 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed San Francisco Giants45c446$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.31,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Athletics13c435.5$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5529446.6%137 W · 157 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Athletics18c422$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8633515.5%52 W · 283 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed San Francisco Giants63c401.61$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.115949.7%79 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Athletics7c400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9170735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics54c383.64$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.76,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Athletics42c357.14$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15034045%153 W · 187 L+1.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants75c356.28$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.25,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe18…3980backed San Francisco Giants55c355.36$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.91683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick59cpaid+42.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Athletics45c354.99$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.716132.3%52 W · 109 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Athletics55c327.27$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18066551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed San Francisco Giants45c320$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.61,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed San Francisco Giants44c315.18$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.551547%242 W · 273 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Athletics56c304$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2476752.3%401 W · 366 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics16c303.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.673,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87c0…244ebacked Athletics7c301.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021948.4%106 W · 113 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.