NBA · resolved market
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f8b29cc7826bc706238ad8b063054d4fcc6a082ca4427df479e9b8610e7b7a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,233 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 48c | 1,320$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.65 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 47c | 1,057$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.68 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…cbaabacked Yes | 50c | 1,009$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.34 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 56c | 897.94$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.94 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…5e69backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 52c | 199.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | +18.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Yes | 54c | 183.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 290 | 40.3%117 W · 173 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed No | 48c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 29c | 104.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf226…9c0fbacked Yes | 54c | 74.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 49c | 59.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…965dbacked Yes | 51c | 47.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Yes | 53c | 37.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…31b0backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…485abacked No | 38c | 30.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…c5e7backed Yes | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…c085backed Yes | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5this page
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Lakers vs. RocketsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5Over won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Lakers won
- Tari Eason: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.