Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will NAC Breda vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f948b76131cb8e50d74cae4da7a208efdd000f13909a1b84092e0aa9db1945e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 26c | 2,867$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.37 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 25c | 1,787$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.86 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 1,734$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.81 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 13c | 1,481$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…02d2backed No | 74c | 1,025$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.62 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Yes | 5c | 943.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 75c | 492.5$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…6d71backed Yes | 22c | 476.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 75c | 452.77$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.19 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 74c | 347.63$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 26c | 344.02$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 26c | 187.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 178 | 36.5%65 W · 113 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 8c | 186.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 176.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 78c | 170.91$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 74c | 166.67$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 306 | 46.7%143 W · 163 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 165.67$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 12c | 162.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab7c…746dbacked Yes | 9c | 157.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 25c | 136$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 129.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 126.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…5c17backed Yes | 26c | 110.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +87%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 101.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 132 | 65.2%86 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 80c | 98.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 95.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Yes | 15c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 24c | 52.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 21c | 49.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 74c | 48.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 78c | 47.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 36.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 77c | 27.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 75c | 25.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 71c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked No | 80c | 18.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…6aa7backed No | 75c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NAC Breda vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
- Will NAC Breda win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.