NHL · resolved market
Spread: Panthers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f9ebf1015a70f110695a571f6d580cdb530e3e3aee0c25af889e2475d25afc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Panthers, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Panthers | 39c | 45,832$17,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,914.18 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 30,474$19,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,470.47 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 16,995$10,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,798 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Panthers | 40c | 13,784$5,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,513.64 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Panthers | 37c | 10,579$3,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,914.23 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 9,792$5,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,916.99 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Panthers | 39c | 4,678$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824.35 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 4,662$2,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,818.18 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 3,365$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.61 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 3,333$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.2 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 1,500$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 1,133$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.82 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 722$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.8 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 680.99$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.78 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 481$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.4 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Panthers | 39c | 346$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Panthers | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Panthers | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 266$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 255.87$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Panthers | 38c | 231.85$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Panthers | 36c | 160$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 145.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Panthers | 37c | 105.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 457 | 56.2%257 W · 200 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 46.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c5…cd3cbacked Panthers | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 231 | 44.6%103 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. PanthersMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.