Movies · resolved market
Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8faf71da22e284f183a4e78389f269bf3d32955971a90f938aac5364974a0eec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed No | 6c | 24,294$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.57 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 7,981$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 76c | 7,791$5,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,886.45 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 19c | 3,000$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 1c | 2,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 70c | 660.97$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.37 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 45c | 655.97$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.78 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 77c | 582.68$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.71 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 79c | 400.85$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 72c | 299.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 69c | 243.12$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6298…b860backed No | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 28c | 159.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 28c | 112$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…c111backed No | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 79c | 82.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 76.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…48febacked Yes | 58c | 71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 27c | 67.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked Yes | 79c | 62.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…11a5backed No | 33c | 56.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed Yes | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed Yes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?this page
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 22m?No won
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 26m?No won
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 18m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.