Mls · resolved market
Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fc6062abe46bf703b224bd09178491a779dc39440939f6ab895fa7113f1d10c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Cincinnatiof FC Cincinnati, San Jose Earthquakes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed San Jose Earthquakes | 68c | 3,755$2,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550.73 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed FC Cincinnati | 32c | 1,891$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.73 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Jose Earthquakes | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.18 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed FC Cincinnati | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.33 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Jose Earthquakes | 69c | 272.09$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.48 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed FC Cincinnati | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed San Jose Earthquakes | 68c | 189.69$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed FC Cincinnati | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed San Jose Earthquakes | 66c | 77.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed San Jose Earthquakes | 66c | 77.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked FC Cincinnati | 31c | 58.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed San Jose Earthquakes | 68c | 58.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked FC Cincinnati | 72c | 48.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed San Jose Earthquakes | 69c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af6…759bbacked FC Cincinnati | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Jose Earthquakes | 70c | 26.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed San Jose Earthquakes | 66c | 24.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 65c | 18.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed San Jose Earthquakes | 68c | 15.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked San Jose Earthquakes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed San Jose Earthquakes | 67c | 14.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed San Jose Earthquakes | 69c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 5.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.