Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf55148d62a5da5b942dde76e04c04115777c9991c0514809c05c8d022848969d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 62c | 18,836$11,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,718.59 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Over | 44c | 5,078$2,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,861.97 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 26c | 3,097$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,291.65 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 38c | 2,797$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.27 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 45c | 2,160$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.33 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 39c | 1,746$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.82 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Over | 39c | 1,066$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.6 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Over | 38c | 991.23$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.56 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 2c | 880$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 26c | 803.86$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.21 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 39c | 724.3$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.24 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 6c | 724$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 36c | 681.18$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.96 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 33c | 600$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 14c | 589.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.79 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 535$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.81 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 60c | 496.62$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.62 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 39c | 465.25$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.55 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 38c | 464.65$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.37 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 36c | 375.96$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.62 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 352.11$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.84 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Over | 70c | 299$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 63c | 275.45$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.53 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 47c | 266$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 37c | 257$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.91 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 78c | 251.13$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.88 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 46c | 246.69$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 52c | 203.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 21c | 187$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 62c | 161.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 34c | 157.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 44c | 156.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 38c | 155.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 37c | 129.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 36c | 125$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 60c | 114$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 34c | 113.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3509…9e45backed Under | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 57c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 17c | 85.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 48c | 85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 58c | 83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Over | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 37c | 66.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…bc0dbacked Over | 29c | 62.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Over | 35c | 55.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…fc83backed Over | 36c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…0769backed Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 46c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 37c | 44.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Over | 36c | 39.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Over | 35c | 30.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 64c | 29.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Over | 39c | 26.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 62c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 62c | 24.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…c4cebacked Under | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c57…1cefbacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 62c | 18.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 5.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.