Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7a871fbde836968260e456da2b73346c64ead36ce150a0087fb17262ded2bc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 57c | 3,182$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.12 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 36c | 1,865$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.09 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 43c | 1,792$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.63 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 46c | 1,746$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.21 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 52c | 1,558$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.45 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 47c | 1,343$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.9 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 43c | 1,082$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.3 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 75c | 1,012$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 64c | 904.29$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.54 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 660.69$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.69 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 23c | 548.55$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 3c | 521.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Over | 75c | 492.69$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…121cbacked Over | 55c | 372.93$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Over | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 5c | 307.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 45c | 303$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 42c | 280.53$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.82 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 56c | 271.26$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.05 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 57c | 269$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.48 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 19c | 249$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 42c | 178$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…985bbacked Over | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 43c | 138$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 55c | 135.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 49c | 114.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 64c | 108.17$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 47 | 80.9%38 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c9…0581backed Under | 50c | 94.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 42c | 86.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 61c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 46c | 83.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 55c | 79.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 43c | 63.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3509…9e45backed Under | 34c | 62.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Under | 45c | 61.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Over | 64c | 60.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 38c | 58.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 65c | 53.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 66c | 53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…a997backed Over | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 65c | 49.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 65c | 49.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Under | 45c | 48.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Over | 57c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 67c | 41.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 45c | 41.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 53c | 39.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…0769backed Under | 45c | 38.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 42c | 36.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…fc83backed Over | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 53c | 34.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 63c | 34.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Under | 46c | 32.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 65c | 32.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…f5bfbacked Over | 64c | 31.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e7…6716backed Under | 46c | 30.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 64c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 55c | 20.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 56c | 18.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Over | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 5.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.