Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61c48155afd235623aa2e07cd60b97bd58a20bdebef58c3b74c0a15a29a34652
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 12c | 6,959$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,127.11 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 64c | 4,300$2,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,753.66 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 9c | 3,065$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.22 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 16c | 2,478$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.22 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 1,968$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.35 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 35c | 1,664$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.67 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 1c | 1,523$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 968.97$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.34 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 35c | 691.6$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.54 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 60c | 655.02$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.56 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 18c | 649.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.48 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Over | 35c | 428.6$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 64c | 425.34$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.49 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 14c | 403.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.78 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 14c | 345.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.08 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 37c | 281.93$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.02 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Over | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 64c | 226$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.91 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 14c | 151.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…985bbacked Under | 70c | 143.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 69c | 140.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 39c | 130$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 17c | 111.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 39c | 106$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Under | 79c | 104.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 54c | 95.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 39c | 86.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 19c | 81.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 42c | 80.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…fc83backed Over | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 34c | 75.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…e635backed Over | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 17c | 74.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 35c | 64.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 80c | 64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 17c | 62.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Over | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Over | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 40c | 57.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Under | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 35c | 49.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 38c | 47.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…c40bbacked Under | 40c | 45.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 60c | 42.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 37.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 41c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 76c | 22.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c57…1cefbacked Under | 79c | 19.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 80c | 19.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 5.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.