Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fe1221fb02fad3e0a6a7ef0081a6b8def32959d6618ac92b6bc8d1da3ff6e70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 74c | 1,628$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.07 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 16c | 1,616$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.42 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 27c | 982.28$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.22 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 9c | 810.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 26c | 721.26$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.07 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 26c | 554.31$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6102…1913backed Under | 79c | 331.01$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 11c | 239.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 74c | 91.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52a…fdf3backed Over | 25c | 88.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 18c | 78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 75c | 76.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014a…9ddbbacked Under | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bad…1e9ebacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 64c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 66c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafb…a4e4backed Under | 77c | 32.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: FC Dallas O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 5.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Portland Timbers 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Portland Timbers O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Portland Timbers O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.