TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Portland Timbersof FC Dallas, Portland Timbers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,723
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,472

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,723 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed FC Dallas10c2,885$289 inLost-$288.7998945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Portland Timbers75c918.22$684 inWon+$234.021,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked FC Dallas16c183$29 inLost-$28.7919172.3%138 W · 53 L+36.8wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+41.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked FC Dallas24c128.99$31 inLost-$30.6436646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed FC Dallas24c124.17$30 inLost-$29.5435247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked FC Dallas11c105.13$11 inLost-$11.2382044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed FC Dallas17c104.35$18 inLost-$17.744238.1%16 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x153a…af29backed FC Dallas12c94$11 inLost-$10.982860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Portland Timbers75c40$30 inWon+$10.111,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba3…97cebacked FC Dallas31c38.46$12 inLost-$11.923946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa625…fac6backed FC Dallas31c38.46$12 inLost-$11.924045%18 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Portland Timbers77c18.55$14 inWon+$4.2123953.6%128 W · 111 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.