Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3329987953e377f2ff9094de989de0209ea7911d003f7ce4abc787a1ce08f3c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 3,858$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.58 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 21c | 2,252$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.96 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 13c | 836.41$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 74c | 756.43$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.06 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Over | 59c | 499.99$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 58c | 265.4$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 13c | 256$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 42c | 245.26$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 26c | 220.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 17c | 157.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 41c | 124.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 41c | 104.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Under | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 106 | 12.3%13 W · 93 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 90.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 13c | 84.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 13c | 79.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Under | 13c | 77.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 23c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 15c | 72.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 27c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 63c | 38.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 34c | 34.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…97cebacked Over | 58c | 19.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…fac6backed Over | 58c | 19.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 80c | 16.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: FC Dallas O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 5.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Portland Timbers 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Portland Timbers O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Portland Timbers O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.