Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2c0cf11dc8ab48d852c2fec544d7a63c2d901f89f0e6ebddaef4343eb4f2cdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 16c | 6,417$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,360.94 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 80c | 5,976$4,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,775.82 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 27c | 4,576$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,322.76 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 13c | 2,485$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.6 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 54c | 1,964$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.42 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Over | 46c | 1,848$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 54c | 1,452$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.96 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6102…1913backed Over | 55c | 1,364$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.52 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 46c | 1,243$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.22 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 63c | 1,136$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.49 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 30c | 1,073$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 78c | 1,054$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.32 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 20c | 1,042$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.4 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 55c | 967.54$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.56 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 69c | 915.05$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.19 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 784.63$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.71 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 80c | 714.7$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.76 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 66c | 653.16$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.45 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 21c | 574.4$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.31 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 52c | 531.81$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.68 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 44c | 450$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 16c | 411.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.43 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 405.89$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.67 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 76c | 327.63$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.05 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6f…9f0abacked Under | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 72c | 289.54$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.08 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 74c | 272.81$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.09 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 26c | 259.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.78 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 24c | 220.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.83 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 24c | 199.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.06 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 24c | 187.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 12c | 184.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.86 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Over | 25c | 140$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 75c | 133.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Over | 25c | 132.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.71 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 29c | 128.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Over | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 31c | 118.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 42c | 112.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.7wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 14c | 109.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Over | 24c | 109$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.84 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 70c | 108.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 45c | 108.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 78c | 102$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 79c | 93.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 32c | 89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 42c | 87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 58c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351d…8574backed Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 46c | 84.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 15c | 83.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 29c | 80.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Over | 44c | 78.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 24c | 65.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 29c | 64.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 21c | 60.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Under | 68c | 55.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec8…c5d4backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Under | 57c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 55c | 30.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 73c | 25.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…2b48backed Under | 55c | 24.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 58c | 21.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…6be7backed Under | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Under | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: FC Dallas O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: O/U 5.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Portland Timbers 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Portland Timbers O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: Portland Timbers O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.