TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,042 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x168c…f24bbacked Under55c1,463$800 inLost-$8001850%9 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over46c662.21$305 inWon+$357.591,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over44c444.03$195 inWon+$248.5792346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over46c151$69 inWon+$81.5436247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Over78c129$101 inWon+$28.38977.8%7 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick78cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under22c129$28 inLost-$28.3891553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over45c105.7$48 inWon+$58.180249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over73c95.33$70 inWon+$25.7419172.3%138 W · 53 L+36.8wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+41.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x5630…7574backed Under54c72.73$39 inLost-$39.361241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over30c66$20 inWon+$46.25133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under70c51$36 inLost-$35.730444.1%134 W · 170 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over47c50$23 inWon+$26.7544350.6%224 W · 219 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e08…19cabacked Over65c45.94$30 inWon+$15.942657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe331…0163backed Over73c33.79$25 inWon+$9.222272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+23.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c72…ec26backed Over64c15.63$10 inWon+$5.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.