Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fe188e0a659a0dbeb88d8a750ebb1a8e8a27645f79bac46c44efd623c50ed86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 1c | 1,606$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 3c | 568.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 7c | 377$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 16c | 281.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 71c | 183.06$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 28c | 176.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 24c | 174.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 167.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 65c | 118.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 88.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 78.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 26c | 64.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 54.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 41.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 37.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 36.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked No | 60c | 34.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 23.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…294fbacked No | 69c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 65c | 18.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 77c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on August 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.