Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ecdf7873178fd67c4ba3f1732a2b8875ae88f3ed487b32325b037346d5b3c3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 388.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 57c | 349.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.47 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 230$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 56c | 219.69$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 60c | 214.25$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.77 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 210.21$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 61c | 205.7$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 204.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 63c | 199.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 42c | 180.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 53c | 167.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes | 60c | 157.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 151.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 121.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 48c | 110.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 104$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 101.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 43c | 98.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 41c | 98.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 92.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 51c | 92.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 43c | 86.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 58c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 56c | 79.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 64c | 78.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 69.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…0a05backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 41c | 59.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 40c | 57.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 41c | 56.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 52c | 54.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 41c | 53.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 49.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 47.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 46.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 67c | 46.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 52c | 46.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 42c | 43.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 42.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…99c9backed No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 29.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 43c | 25.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 57c | 17.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 73c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.