Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37598f94c91a2c0607117e4f54627f980da79d9acfdd8141b3847ee61d32729a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 368.84$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.44 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 350$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 60c | 340.83$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.2 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 336.07$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 44c | 297.27$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.67 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 40c | 286.62$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.65 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 43c | 242.03$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 39c | 213.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 177.46$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 62c | 172.67$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 55c | 170$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 38c | 156.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked Yes | 41c | 146.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 140.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 63c | 137.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 41c | 128.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 123.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 116.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 116.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 40c | 114.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 42c | 107$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 55c | 102.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 61c | 101.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 64c | 95.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 91.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 90.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 86.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 82.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 77.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 46c | 76.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 74.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 68c | 69.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 68.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 41c | 66.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 61c | 63.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 62.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 61.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 61c | 61.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 34c | 60.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 59c | 55.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 62c | 55.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 54.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 57c | 54.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 45c | 52.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 50.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 50.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 58c | 49.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 48c | 48.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 48.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 47.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 43c | 46.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 52c | 45.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 62c | 44.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked No | 61c | 41.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…99c9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 39c | 37.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 36.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 55c | 32.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 60c | 30.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 54c | 29.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 75c | 27.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 26.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 26.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 76c | 25.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 23.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 54c | 22.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 60c | 18.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 18.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 57c | 17.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 14.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on August 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.