Fifa International · resolved market
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ff7c9dfb3b6db2347cab74db5c557a8116702158e1811e499396b823c474897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…165cbacked No | 43c | 1,858$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Yes | 56c | 1,730$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.9 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…bc19backed Yes | 58c | 1,031$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.51 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 43c | 1,009$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.4 | 165 | 64.2%106 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 43c | 557.81$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.81 | 373 | 50.1%187 W · 186 L | +45.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 55c | 277$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.65 | 361 | 23.5%85 W · 276 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 288 | 73.3%211 W · 77 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed No | 47c | 195$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 95 | 63.2%60 W · 35 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…914bbacked Yes | 57c | 169.07$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…a45dbacked Yes | 58c | 167.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…c8e4backed Yes | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf96b…9c4cbacked No | 39c | 125.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +21.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked No | 39c | 120.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed No | 39c | 111.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18fe…af43backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…fe15backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…6a80backed Yes | 57c | 91.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…c4a5backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked No | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +8.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…db24backed Yes | 56c | 71.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed Yes | 56c | 64.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 50c | 63.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…cb82backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 179 | 33.5%60 W · 119 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Yes | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 373 | 52.5%196 W · 177 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…0e0fbacked Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 162 | 62.3%101 W · 61 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa875…9f99backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…eacfbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…dd82backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df3…b8bebacked Yes | 59c | 33.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…85dfbacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 44c | 26.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b4…a38abacked Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Federico Valverde: 3+ shotsthis page
- Agustín Canobbio: 1+ goalsYes won
- Agustín Canobbio: 2+ goalsNo won
- Darwin Núñez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Darwin Núñez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Darwin Núñez: 3+ goalsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 1+ assistsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 1+ goalsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 2+ goalsNo won
- Federico Viñas: 1+ assistsNo won
- Federico Viñas: 1+ goalsNo won
- Federico Viñas: 2+ goalsNo won
- Federico Viñas: 2+ shotsNo won
- Federico Viñas: 3+ goalsNo won
- Federico Viñas: 3+ shotsNo won
- Gilson Benchimol: 1+ goalsNo won
- Maximiliano Araújo: 1+ assistsYes won
- Maximiliano Araújo: 1+ goalsYes won
- Maximiliano Araújo: 2+ goalsNo won
- Nicolás de la Cruz: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.