Fifa International · resolved market
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23b852dc507d27b82e1ca0ea73548348e3a6c5e8fcc867cb76b14d5cc319547d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x336b…1233backed No | 64c | 880.23$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.88 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4eb…7ba3backed Yes | 36c | 555.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 20c | 495.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 361 | 23.5%85 W · 276 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…e78ebacked Yes | 29c | 480.45$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 75c | 422.75$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.02 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5d…946ebacked Yes | 36c | 228.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 77c | 225.78$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed No | 71c | 112.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 379 | 71.2%270 W · 109 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 66c | 104.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 80c | 100.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 359 | 54%194 W · 165 L | +20.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 62c | 79.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…c160backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61f…c6a6backed No | 62c | 77.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 128 | 75.8%97 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 291 | 38.5%112 W · 179 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb282…cde9backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 64c | 55.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 379 | 59.1%224 W · 155 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…bd16backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…355abacked Yes | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18fe…af43backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8e…22ebbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Yes | 34c | 39.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 65c | 34.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 333 | 50.5%168 W · 165 L | +24.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 35c | 30.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…3323backed No | 67c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…a686backed No | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 184 | 73.4%135 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Federico Viñas: 1+ goalsthis page
- Agustín Canobbio: 1+ goalsYes won
- Agustín Canobbio: 2+ goalsNo won
- Darwin Núñez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Darwin Núñez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Darwin Núñez: 3+ goalsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 1+ assistsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 1+ goalsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 2+ goalsNo won
- Federico Valverde: 3+ shotsYes won
- Federico Viñas: 1+ assistsNo won
- Federico Viñas: 2+ goalsNo won
- Federico Viñas: 2+ shotsNo won
- Federico Viñas: 3+ goalsNo won
- Federico Viñas: 3+ shotsNo won
- Gilson Benchimol: 1+ goalsNo won
- Maximiliano Araújo: 1+ assistsYes won
- Maximiliano Araújo: 1+ goalsYes won
- Maximiliano Araújo: 2+ goalsNo won
- Nicolás de la Cruz: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.