Federico Valverde: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x974818f70c7564937689d683349bfa478e5c19df0e823b9cee04ec35731d8f3b

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,146
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $22,723

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,146 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd61f…c6a6backed No	73c	5,119$3,715 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,404.04	128	75.8%97 W · 31 L	+7.6wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No	67c	3,283$2,201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,082.58	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d96…7c16backed No	74c	3,000$2,210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$789.99	116	54.3%63 W · 53 L	+8.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Yes	28c	2,500$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	160	50.6%81 W · 79 L	+5.6wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Yes	25c	2,362$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.63	361	23.5%85 W · 276 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x886f…5e20backed Yes	26c	1,847$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.04	60	33.3%20 W · 40 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238c…57b1backed Yes	27c	1,831$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	53	56.6%30 W · 23 L	+3.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No	72c	1,378$991 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$386.82	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d13…3c2fbacked No	73c	1,140$831 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$309.2	327	65.7%215 W · 112 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf531…121cbacked Yes	54c	1,025$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	179	44.1%79 W · 100 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Yes	25c	1,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	229	43.7%100 W · 129 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed Yes	31c	944$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.64	198	25.3%50 W · 148 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked No	75c	933.33$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.33	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No	76c	629$478 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.47	1,492	41%612 W · 880 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a18…edebbacked No	73c	499.98$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.5	62	50%31 W · 31 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd044…a6febacked Yes	27c	487.53$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.63	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked No	73c	444.03$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.23	163	57.1%93 W · 70 L	+11.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11b0…fe15backed Yes	28c	400$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa76c…dc83backed Yes	26c	384.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	160	16.3%26 W · 134 L	-11.0wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd06f…7bfebacked Yes	30c	367.55$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.2	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-6.3wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-58%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd045…519bbacked Yes	20c	364.6$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.92	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	23cpaid	-87.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x848c…2bf0backed Yes	28c	330$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.4	221	22.2%49 W · 172 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	71c	328.04$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.43	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a8…be88backed Yes	31c	322.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c77…1bfebacked Yes	29c	320.69$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x155d…3ec8backed Yes	26c	269.23$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	255	32.9%84 W · 171 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdac1…baddbacked No	73c	249.99$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.5	311	71.4%222 W · 89 L	+15.4wins	+0.05per pick	66cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb98a…914bbacked Yes	28c	244.11$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.35	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb87…a45dbacked Yes	28c	233.33$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.33	211	46.9%99 W · 112 L	+6.9wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ab…178dbacked Yes	12c	190$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	198	23.7%47 W · 151 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No	73c	175.22$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.77	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb871…1cb8backed Yes	28c	172.41$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.27	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No	74c	168.32$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.76	379	59.1%224 W · 155 L	+20.5wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+12%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bae…a34cbacked Yes	15c	166.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	73	27.4%20 W · 53 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda50…2a41backed Yes	27c	162.78$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.95	105	50.5%53 W · 52 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes	28c	161$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.08	477	44.2%211 W · 266 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No	73c	159.06$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.95	707	50.1%354 W · 353 L	+25.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed No	74c	132.99$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.72	379	71.2%270 W · 109 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	11c	129.71$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.69	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No	15c	120.57$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.48	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	+4.1wins	+0.10per pick	9cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x510b…2feabacked Yes	27c	111.13$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.06	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Yes	28c	103$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.84	373	52.5%196 W · 177 L	+16.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No	75c	100$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	288	73.3%211 W · 77 L	+21.7wins	+0.08per pick	66cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed No	74c	99.97$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.99	403	43.7%176 W · 227 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46e3…8a22backed Yes	26c	97.29$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8704…566cbacked No	73c	95.39$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.39	65	84.6%55 W · 10 L	+11.4wins	+0.18per pick	67cpaid	+29%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb282…cde9backed Yes	27c	92.59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb47…96c1backed Yes	28c	89.29$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	54	29.6%16 W · 38 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Yes	28c	89.29$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	291	38.5%112 W · 179 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71cc…9144backed Yes	28c	85.71$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	235	44.7%105 W · 130 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37b5…b6c8backed Yes	26c	76.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	115	26.1%30 W · 85 L	-8.0wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc532…e86fbacked Yes	27c	74.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0107…8c74backed Yes	16c	73.38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	68	27.9%19 W · 49 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	27c	71.91$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.39	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Yes	27c	66.67$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	58	50%29 W · 29 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd2…3c02backed Yes	27c	58.71$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.98	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2186…271bbacked Yes	26c	57.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87ce…7fe3backed Yes	28c	53.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8e…22ebbacked Yes	28c	53.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f1…dd82backed Yes	28c	53.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	98	54.1%53 W · 45 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18fe…af43backed Yes	26c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	82	59.8%49 W · 33 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df3…b8bebacked Yes	28c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	91	50.5%46 W · 45 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98a3…9024backed Yes	28c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4010…eacfbacked Yes	26c	46.15$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	94	59.6%56 W · 38 L	+7.0wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1b4…a38abacked Yes	28c	42.86$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ca…6645backed Yes	29c	37.93$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2161…f80dbacked Yes	28c	36.04$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4960…0648backed Yes	66c	30.29$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed No	74c	29.99$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.9	65	64.6%42 W · 23 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No	63c	18.09$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.76	177	60.5%107 W · 70 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Federico Valverde: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event