Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x902569a0a34efd1a51ec61d9f9d4f508958c62970d59c019f10ac583a3ec4517
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 1c | 1,089$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 46c | 455.84$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.94 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 50c | 310.26$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.02 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 255.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 241.49$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.08 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 54c | 226.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.46 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 49c | 204.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 193.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.23 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 53c | 165.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 134.42$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 132.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 128.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 25c | 123.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 123.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 66c | 118.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 44c | 113.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 106.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 45c | 100.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 51c | 97.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 95.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 54c | 92.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 85.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 80.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 47c | 79.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 48c | 75.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 19c | 75.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 58c | 68.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 66.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 50c | 56.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 54.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 49.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 44.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 42.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 47c | 39.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 39.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 35.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 49c | 34.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 34.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 33.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 31.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 31.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 54c | 30.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 56c | 29.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 27.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 59c | 23.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 51c | 20.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 54c | 20.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 19.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 19.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.