CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x902a621002ef23f3567fc3ea468adefde405e06ce5665619ba9c618ef530c2d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASTRALof ASTRAL, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,341 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 55c | 4,118$2,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260.94 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed ASTRAL | 26c | 2,564$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,887 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7dc…2541backed ASTRAL | 38c | 2,366$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed ASTRAL | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked ASTRAL | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 50c | 1,507$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.82 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Ursa | 55c | 1,129$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.45 | 807 | 44.6%360 W · 447 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1f…a252backed ASTRAL | 46c | 877.91$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.91 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe137…a117backed ASTRAL | 53c | 851.17$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.18 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd2…0c9dbacked ASTRAL | 33c | 830.95$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Ursa | 72c | 822$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.84 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Ursa | 49c | 820.43$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.02 | 362 | 45.3%164 W · 198 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Ursa | 73c | 643.08$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.45 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed ASTRAL | 43c | 531.16$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.76 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ursa | 64c | 462.11$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.44 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fd…b4d3backed Ursa | 66c | 450$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.98 | 298 | 40.3%120 W · 178 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed Ursa | 62c | 430.53$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.93 | 175 | 46.3%81 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…72a8backed Ursa | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…46b5backed Ursa | 61c | 396.88$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.05 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Ursa | 74c | 375.38$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.26 | 207 | 43%89 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed Ursa | 36c | 265$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 151 | 42.4%64 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Ursa | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 368 | 45.9%169 W · 199 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Ursa | 58c | 185.61$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…68f8backed Ursa | 49c | 142.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Ursa | 54c | 137.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked Ursa | 77c | 131.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked ASTRAL | 29c | 129.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.06 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Ursa | 68c | 114.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ASTRAL | 45c | 106.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked ASTRAL | 47c | 104.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…6a61backed Ursa | 12c | 102.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b132backed Ursa | 47c | 101.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Ursa | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 719 | 51%367 W · 352 L | +28.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Ursa | 51c | 98.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed ASTRAL | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…5c97backed Ursa | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5142…ee20backed Ursa | 74c | 74.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Ursa | 74c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 180 | 63.9%115 W · 65 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked ASTRAL | 26c | 65.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…b9c6backed Ursa | 74c | 63.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Ursa | 58c | 60.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 256 | 34.4%88 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Ursa | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…0c88backed Ursa | 57c | 56.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed ASTRAL | 50c | 50.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked ASTRAL | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce2…4b11backed Ursa | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…89b4backed ASTRAL | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 245 | 35.9%88 W · 157 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Ursa | 59c | 47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed ASTRAL | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Ursa | 61c | 41.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 373 | 39.7%148 W · 225 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Ursa | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed ASTRAL | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…a3c1backed ASTRAL | 50c | 37.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Ursa | 59c | 36.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ASTRAL | 29c | 36.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…bf4bbacked Ursa | 70c | 32.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 323 | 51.4%166 W · 157 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Ursa | 62c | 31.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Ursa | 75c | 29.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…d3dfbacked Ursa | 48c | 29.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed ASTRAL | 43c | 26.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Ursa | 40c | 25.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…749cbacked ASTRAL | 49c | 21.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…3533backed Ursa | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4a…7045backed Ursa | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…8427backed ASTRAL | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Ursa | 74c | 19.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Ursa | 55c | 19.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…9b9abacked ASTRAL | 74c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 456 | 63.6%290 W · 166 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked Ursa | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 171 | 50.3%86 W · 85 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerASTRAL won
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs ASTRAL (+1.5)ASTRAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.